If multiple dividend-themed funds double in size, will there still be "profits"

After witnessing a rebound in February, the A-share market has recently experienced a downward trend amidst market fluctuations. Among these, dividend-paying assets have shown relatively strong performance. Data indicates that as of June 17th, the year-to-date cumulative returns for indices such as the Low Volatility Dividend and the CSI Dividend were 13.31% and 9.52%, respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index only rose by 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 4.5% during the same period.

Despite some recent pullbacks, the popularity of dividend strategies remains undiminished, and capital continues to flow in. Data shows that as of June 14th, more than 40% of dividend-themed ETF products have seen net inflows of over 100 million yuan within the year, with 7 products "absorbing" more than 1 billion yuan, and several dividend ETF shares have doubled in growth. At the same time, public fund institutions have seized the needs of investors, and the issuance of dividend-themed funds remains active.

In the view of industry insiders, although dividend strategies raise concerns about crowding and stock-on-stock competition, they have not yet reached the point of "standing at high positions." In the medium to long term, the fundamental logic remains unchanged and may become a mainstream investment topic in the next two years. However, when investing, special attention should be paid to the sustainability of company profits and dividend payout ratios.

The popularity of dividend-themed products continues

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Currently, capital is continuously flowing into dividend-themed ETFs. Wind data shows that as of June 14th, there are 38 ETF products with "dividend" or "dividend" in their names, with more than 16.357 billion yuan of capital inflow into related index products since the beginning of the year.

Among them, more than 40% of dividend-themed ETF products have "absorbed" over 100 million yuan within the year. For instance, the Huatai-Pine Rich Dividend Low Volatility ETF has seen a net inflow of 5.597 billion yuan within the year, and 6 products such as the E Fund CSI Dividend ETF and the Southern S&P China A-Share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF have seen net inflows of over 1 billion yuan.

With the continuous entry of funds, the scale of dividend-themed ETFs is also being refreshed. Wind data shows that as of June 14th, the share count of the Tianhong CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF Fund is 3.28 billion shares, an increase of over 13 times compared to the 230 million shares at the end of last year.

In addition, the share count of the ICBC CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Selection ETF, the China AMC Hang Seng China Enterprises High Dividend Rate ETF, and the E Fund CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF have all doubled within the year. The Huatai-Pine Rich Dividend Low Volatility ETF, the Southern S&P China A-Share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF, the Harvest CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF, and the China AMC CSI Dividend Quality ETF have all doubled.

Behind the rapid growth in scale is also the driving force from performance. First Financial combined products with "dividend" or "dividend" in their names and Wind dividend classification, and selected 184 thematic products (different shares are merged for calculation, only the initial fund is calculated), with more than 70% of products having a positive return within the year.

Among the 65 fund products with a return of more than 10% within the year, the Yongying Dividend Selection A has a leading annual return of 28.58%, and the ICBC Dividend Enjoyment A and Qianhai Kaiyuan Dividend Rate 50 Strong and other products have accumulated returns of 25.79% and 21.05% respectively since the beginning of the year; the performance returns of 19 products such as the China Europe Dividend Enjoyment A and Ping An Dividend Selection A are between 15% and 20%.However, not all dividend products have performed well. Among the 37 thematic products that have seen a return of more than 1% within the year, the Guolian Smart Selection Dividend A has suffered the largest loss, exceeding 16.99%. Products such as Bank of Communications Stock Dividend Optimization, Puyan Anshun Dividend Selection A, and China Ocean Dividend Increase have seen declines of over 10%. In other words, the performance of these products varies by more than 45 percentage points from the best to the worst.

Market corrections do not alter the logic of asset allocation.

During periods of stock market volatility, dividend assets, which are primarily high-dividend and high-dividend yield, remain popular, and public mutual funds are actively deploying related products. Wind data shows that, as of June 17th, calculated based on the fund establishment date, a total of 35 products with "dividend" or "dividend yield" in their names have been newly launched this year.

Additionally, 11 related thematic funds are in the pipeline for issuance. Among them, the first batch of three China Securities National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETFs from Nanfang Fund, GF Fund, and Jing Shun Great Wall Fund collectively opened for subscription on June 11th, becoming another central enterprise-themed ETF product in the Guoxin 1+N index system, following central enterprise shareholder returns, central enterprise technology leadership, and central enterprise modern energy.

When discussing the reasons why public mutual funds continue to focus on dividend strategy products, a fund marketing department official from South China, in conversation with a reporter, stated that the dividend strategy is considered a long-term investment strategy relatively independent of the bull and bear market cycles. In the current market environment, it is an attractive investment choice, and there will be a relatively large demand from investors for such products.

In fact, since last year, dividend-themed investments have been continuously popular. "It has risen so much, will it be a high chase now?" "Will it be 'standing at a high position'?" ... Recently, some investors have also had doubts about this theme.

"When the overall market retracts or fluctuates significantly, dividend low volatility performs well, thus attracting the attention of investors," said Wang Zihan, fund manager of Harvest CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF, to First Financial. The dividend low volatility strategy has a smaller drawdown in a bear market scenario, possessing good defensive attributes; in certain market environments, it also has decent offensive attributes.

Wang Zihan believes that in the current market, risk appetite is relatively low, and the attractiveness of assets with certain cash dividends has increased. When the market fluctuates greatly and there are many falling sectors, investors' risk appetite decreases, and they are less concerned about how much stocks can rise. Instead, they pay more attention to dividend income, and the market prefers companies with high dividends.

"In simple terms, investors are more willing to pursue certainty in the current environment," Wang Zihan told First Financial. The current point is in a period of long-term interest rate decline, significant stock market volatility, and many uncertain factors. The policy is also favorable to large-cap + high dividend assets, thus increasing the attractiveness of dividend low volatility assets.

On the other hand, a fixed-income fund manager, in conversation with First Financial, also said that when building a portfolio, he would also pay attention to dividend and high dividend dividend assets to prepare for the product's defensiveness. "High dividend stocks often come from mature enterprises with stable profits and abundant cash flow. In a low-interest-rate environment, such assets can provide relatively stable cash flow and have strong risk resistance," he said.The reporter observed that with the recent significant market fluctuations, dividend-related indices have also experienced some pullbacks. In response to this, a representative from China Merchants Fund told Yicai that in the short term, the consolidation and even a certain degree of phase retracement of dividend assets are normal adjustments under the continuous new highs. In the medium to long term, the long-line allocation logic of high dividend concepts remains.

"Looking at the macro environment both domestically and internationally, certainty is still relatively scarce, and the dividend asset allocation style may continue to be superior," said the representative. In their view, the market's expectations for the molecular end remain relatively cautious, making dividend assets with high profitability and stable dividends an important choice for relative market returns.

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